that she was not getting enough international trade work. The DL & A evidence does nothing to impeach that statement. None of the DL & A evidence speaks to the reason for Neuren leaving the firm; rather, it merely explains that Neuren was not given certain assignments because she was difficult to get along with. If this evidence does anything, then, it confirms, rather than rebuts, Neu-ren’s reason for departing DL & A by explaining why she was not getting enough international trade work.
We conclude that the district court erred in admitting the DL & A evaluations and testimony into evidence. The DL & A evidence was not admissible to prove that Neu-ren acted in conformity with the evidence while working for AMM & S nor is it relevant to impeach her testimony.
B. Harmless Error and Title VII
Our conclusion that the district court erred does not end our inquiry, however. We must next ask whether the district court’s erroneous admission of the DL & A evidence prejudiced the outcome at trial or was harmless error. See Fed.R.Evid. 103 (“Error may not be predicated upon a ruling which admits ... evidence unless a substantial right of the party is affected.”).
The harmless error inquiry “involves an assessment of the likelihood that the error affected the outcome of the case- ‘[I]f one cannot say, with fair assurance, ... that the judgment was not substantially swayed by the error, it is impossible to conclude that substantial rights were not affected.’ ” Jordan v. Medley, 711 F.2d 211, 218-19 (D.C.Cir.1983) (quoting Kotteakos v. United States, 328 U.S. 750, 765, 66 S.Ct. 1239, 1248, 90 L.Ed. 1557 (1946)). The application of the harmless error test is fact-specific, depending upon the balance of the evidence bearing upon the issue which the error arguably affected and the centrality of that issue to the ultimate decision. Jordan, 711 F.2d at 219. “The proper inquiry is “whether the error itself had substantial influence. If so, of if one is left in grave doubt, the [verdict] cannot stand.’ ” Williams v. U.S. Elevator Corp., 920 F.2d 1019, 1023 (D.C.Cir.1990) (quoting Kotteakos, 328 U.S. at 765, 66 S.Ct. at 1248). In order to decide whether the admission of the DL & A evidence was harmless error, then, we must look to the standards for determining whether Neuren’s termination contravened Title VII and determine whether the judgment was substantially affected by admission of the DL & A evidence.
In Texas Dep’t of Community Affairs v. Burdine, 450 U.S. 248, 101 S.Ct. 1089, 67 L.Ed.2d 207 (1981), the Supreme Court described the three-step analysis with respect to the burden of proof in a Title VII case alleging discriminatory treatment. Id. at 252-53, 101 S.Ct. at 1093-94 (citing McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792, 93 S.Ct. 1817, 36 L.Ed.2d 668 (1973)). First, the plaintiff has the burden of proving by the preponderance of the evidence a prima facie case of discrimination. Burdine, 450 U.S. at 252-53, 101 S.Ct. at 1093-94. In order to meet her prima facie case of sex discrimination in a discharge decision, the plaintiff must demonstrate (1) membership in a protected class, i.e., that she is a woman, (2) performance at or near the employer’s legitimate expectations, (3) discharge, and (4) replacement by a person of equal or lesser ability who is not a member of a protected class or, alternatively, the position remains open after termination. Parton v. GTE North, Inc., 971 F.2d 150, 153 (8th Cir.1992). If the plaintiff succeeds in proving the prima facie case, the burden of production shifts to the defendant to articulate some legitimate, nondiscriminatory reason for the employee’s termination. Burdine, 450 U.S. at 253, 101 S.Ct. at 1093-94. Finally, should the defendant meet this burden, the plaintiff must then demonstrate by a preponderance of the evidence that the legitimate reasons offered by the defendant were not its true reasons, but were rather a pretext for discrimination. Id. We evaluate the effect of admission of the DL & A evidence in light of this burden-shifting framework.
Although Burdine admonishes that the plaintiffs burden of establishing a prima fa-cie ease is “not onerous,” id., it is not clear that Neuren has met it here. Though she was a member of a protected class who was discharged and not replaced, she was only